Al-Baghdadi’s death a blow, but IS has survived other losses
By JOSEPH KRAUSS on October 28, 2019
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Al-Baghdadi's death a blow, but IS has survived other losses |
BEIRUT (AP) — The death of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi marks the demise of one of the most brutally effective jihadist leaders of modern times — a man who commanded tens of thousands of fighters from around the world, carved out a territorial caliphate in the Middle East and refined a horrific ideology that survives him.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced Sunday that al-Baghdadi died in a U.S. raid in Syria after he was chased into a tunnel with three of his children and set off a vest of explosives. IS lost its last foothold of territory earlier this year to U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces, but al-Baghdadi had continued to exhort remnants of the group to carry out attacks.
His death is a major blow, but the extremist group has survived the loss of previous leaders and military setbacks going back to the aftermath of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
A look at al-Baghdadi’s death and what it means going forward:
WHO WAS AL-BAGHDADI?
Born Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Samarrai in 1971 in Samarra, Iraq, he adopted the nom de guerre al-Baghdadi and joined the Sunni insurgency against U.S. forces after the 2003 invasion. He was detained by U.S. troops in February 2004 and spent 10 months in the Camp Bucca prison in southern Iraq.
He eventually assumed control of the Islamic State of Iraq, an al-Qaida linked group founded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian militant killed in a U.S. airstrike in Iraq in 2006. Under al-Baghdadi, the group expanded into neighboring Syria, exploiting the chaos unleashed by that country’s 2011 uprising and civil war.
In the summer of 2014, his fighters swept across eastern Syria and northern and western Iraq, eventually carving out a self-styled “caliphate” in a third of both countries. In early July, al-Baghdadi made his first public appearance, delivering a sermon in a centuries-old mosque in the Iraqi city of Mosul and declaring himself caliph, or leader of the world’s Muslims.
Under his leadership, the group carried out a wave of atrocities, including the enslavement and rape of thousands of women from Iraq’s Yazidi minority. They massacred captives, beheaded journalists and aid workers, and threw individuals believed to be gay from the rooftops of buildings. They gleefully broadcast the killings with slickly produced videos and photos on social media.
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WAS HE A THREAT TO OTHER COUNTRIES?
Al-Baghdadi repeatedly urged his followers to attack a list of enemies that came to include much of the world, including the United States and other Western countries, Shiite Muslims whom he deemed apostates, and even devout Sunni Muslims who rejected his group’s ideology.
Unlike Osama bin Laden and other jihadists who strove to carry out 9/11-style attacks that would capture world attention, al-Baghdadi exhorted followers to do whatever they could with the weapons they had at hand. His group claimed scores of attacks worldwide, including so-called lone wolf attacks with no direct connection to the group.
But IS also directly orchestrated attacks, including the 2015 shootings and suicide bombings in Paris that killed 130 people. It also claimed this year’s Easter suicide bombings in Sri Lanka that killed 269 people.
The extremist group attracted tens of thousands of foreigners to whom it provided advanced military training, and spawned powerful affiliates in Egypt, Libya, Afghanistan and elsewhere that continue to carry out attacks.
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WHAT EFFECT WILL HIS DEATH HAVE?
As the world’s most-wanted terrorist with a $25 million U.S. bounty on his head, al-Baghdadi’s ability to run the day-to-day affairs of IS was probably very limited. He would have had to move among various safe houses with a small group of loyalists and avoid using electronic communications that could be tracked by intelligence agencies.
But he was an imposing figurehead, and his ability to elude the world’s most powerful intelligence services for so many years added to his mystique among his followers. He proved to be a highly effective leader and will be hard to replace.
Al-Baghdadi never publicly designated a successor, and many of his top deputies have been killed. His death could spark infighting among prospective successors, potentially further weakening the group.
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IS THIS THE END OF THE ISLAMIC STATE?
The Islamic State group in its various forms has survived the death of several leaders and senior commanders. It has been able to replenish its ranks by attracting Sunni Muslims in the Middle East who feel oppressed by their governments, as well as foreigners attracted by the group’s austere vision of Islam, its ultra-violent tactics, or both.
It still boasts powerful affiliates in other countries, and remnants of the original group continue to carry out sporadic attacks in both Syria and Iraq.
Perhaps even more worrying are the tens of thousands of IS fighters and supporters detained across the Middle East, including those held by Kurdish fighters in eastern Syria. The U.S. decision this month to pull out of Syria and abandon its former allies to a Turkish invasion allowed hundreds of IS supporters to escape and raised concerns about the security of other facilities.
It’s possible that a future IS leader is wearing a prison jumpsuit, quietly recruiting supporters within concrete walls lined with barbed wire and plotting his next move — just as al-Baghdadi once did.
For Yazidis, Baghdadi's death 'doesn't feel like justice yet'
ReplyDeleteReuters; Published: Today 8:35 am | Modified: Today 10:55 am
Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s death will mean nothing to 19-year-old rape victim Jamila unless the Islamic State militants who enslaved her are brought to justice.
Jamila, who asked not to be identified by her last name, is one of thousands of women from the Yazidi minority religion who were kidnapped and raped by IS after it mounted an assault on the Yazidi homeland in northern Iraq in August 2014.
“Even if Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is dead, it doesn’t mean Islamic State is dead,” Jamila told Reuters outside the tent that is now her temporary home in the Sharya camp for displaced Yazidis in Iraq’s Kurdistan region.
“This doesn’t feel like justice yet,” she said. “I want the men who took me, who raped me, to stand trial. And I want to have my voice heard in court. I want to face them in court ... Without proper trials, his death has no meaning.”
Baghdadi, who had led IS since 2010, detonated a suicide vest after being cornered in a raid by US special forces in northwest Syria, US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday.
Inspired by his edicts to enslave and slaughter Yazidis, whom IS regard as infidels, his followers shot, beheaded and kidnapped thousands in a rampage which the United Nations called a genocidal campaign against them.
Along with thousands of other women and children, Jamila said she was enslaved by the militants and kept in captivity for five months in the city of Mosul along with her sister.
She was just 14 when she was seized. But her problems did not end after she and her sister managed to escape when, she said, their guards were high on drugs.
“When I first came back, I had a nervous breakdown and psychological problems for two years, so I couldn’t go to school,” she said.
Now instead of working or catching up on her years of lost schooling, she looks after her mother, with whom she shares her cramped tent at the camp.
“My mother can’t walk and has health problems so I have to stay and take care of her because my older siblings are in Germany,” she said.
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No plans to go home
DeleteThe prospect of going home to Sinjar in northern Iraq is not an option for Jamila, and many others. The city still lies in ruin four years after the IS onslaught, and suspicion runs deep in the ethnically-mixed area.
“Sinjar is completely destroyed. Even if we could go back, I wouldn’t want to because we’d be surrounded by the same Arab neighbours who all joined IS in the first place, and helped them kill us (Yazidis),” she said.
Thousands of men are being tried in Iraqi courts for their ties to IS. Iraq has so far not allowed victims to testify in court, something community leaders and human rights groups say would go a long way in the healing process.
“It is deplorable that not a single victim of Islamic State’s horrific abuses including sexual slavery has gotten their day in court,” said Belkis Wille, Iraq researcher for Human Rights Watch.
“Iraq’s justice system is designed to allow the state to exact mass revenge against suspects, not provide real accountability for victims.”
For some of the nearly 17,000 Yazidis at the Sharya camp, Baghdadi’s death was a first step in that direction though they fear the IS fighters who are still alive.
Mayan Sinu, 25, can dream of a new life after the camp as she and her three children have been granted asylum by Australia.
But she also wants the men who shot her husband in the legs and dragged him off to be brought to justice. He has been missing since the incident five years ago.
“I hope Baghdadi is suffering more than we ever did, and my God we suffered,” said Sinu. “I wish he (Baghdadi) hadn’t blown himself up so I could have slaughtered him myself with my bare hands.”
- Reuters
- Mkini
- https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/497843
Islamic State silent on Baghdadi death as it searches for successor
ReplyDeleteReuters; Published: October 30, 2019.
Islamic State supporters have responded with silence and disbelief days after the death of their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, suggesting a breakdown in the command structure of the Sunni militant group trying to agree on a successor.
There has been no official statement or mourning on Baghdadi on Islamic State’s (IS) official Telegram channel since US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday his killing at the hands of special operations forces in northwestern Syria.
Its Amaq news agency Telegram has been continuing business as usual, posting since Sunday more than 30 claims of attacks in Syria, Egypt, Afghanistan and Iraq praising its fighters.
There has also been less chatter among jihadist supporters on social media compared to the killing of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in 2011 and other militant leaders.
Analysts said the remains of Islamic State’s leadership were in a state of shock probably trying to keep the group together and agree on a successor before confirming Baghdadi’s killing.
“There is probably right now chaos inside what is left of the leadership. Key aides have been killed and documents destroyed,” said Hisham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi expert on militant groups.
“They will want to agree on a successor before announcing the death,” he said, adding that a split of the group could delay this.
The group might also need to rebrand itself since using Baghdadi’s declared Islamic caliphate was no longer appropriate having lost the swathes of Iraq, Syria and Libya its fighters used to control until 2017, analysts said.
Many of Baghdadi’s followers were also killed, Trump said on Sunday.
On Tuesday, he wrote on Twitter the US military had likely killed the person who likely would have succeeded Baghdadi as Islamic State leader.
Trump did not specify who he was referring to, but a senior State Department official on Monday confirmed the killing of Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir, Islamic State spokesman and a high-ranking IS figure, in an operation separate from the one that killed Baghdadi.
It took al Qaeda, another Sunni militant group following a similar ideology which carried out the Sept 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, several days before it confirmed the killing of Osama bin Laden in a US raid, said Aymenn al-Tamimi, a researcher at Swansea University focused on Islamic State.
About six weeks passed before the group announced a successor to bin Laden.
“Islamic State could announce the death in their weekly newsletter which could come out on Thursday if they were able to agree on a successor,” said Tamimi.
He said Hajj Abdullah, a deputy of Baghdadi, was his likely successor, provided he was still alive.
Cont. below...
There had been conflicting reports before whether Baghdadi was still alive after the Islamic State lost its last significant territory in Syria in March, resorting since then to hit-and-run guerrilla tactics.
DeleteHis last audio message was in September.
Defiance
There has been less chatter online among supporters of militant groups compared to times when militants were previously killed.
Social media platforms such as Twitter are now quicker at deleting accounts linked to militants, while several Arab countries have stepped up online surveillance. That forces users to constantly change encrypted accounts.
Of those Islamic State supporters who went online after Trump’s announcement following an initial stunning silence, many voiced disbelief or dismissed the news as fake.
A Telegram account linked to IS warned supporters not to believe an alleged image announcing the death. The message ended with “God almighty preserve him (Baghdadi)”, suggesting the poster still believed Baghdadi was alive.
Other supporters seemed ready to embrace his death, urging supporters to continue the jihadist fight in any case.
“Whatever happens the jihad convoy moves forward and will not stop even if the state is annihilated,” one supporter wrote on a personal Telegram account.
Tamimi said there was not much mourning as many militant supporters were glad to see Baghdadi dead because he had in their view damaged the jihad project by his group’s cruelty by meting out punishments such as amputations of legs and hands.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Sunni group formerly known as the Nusra Front and which dominates Idlib in northwestern Syria where Baghdadi was killed, praised his death.
“The only regret they had was that they hadn’t killed him instead of US forces,” said Tamimi.
In contrast to Islamic State, supporters of al Qaeda quickly accepted Baghdadi’s death, according to the US-based SITE Intel Group which monitors jihadist websites.
“How much blood has been shed in the name of his imaginary Caliphate?” posted Sirajuddin Zurayqat, a former official in a former al Qaeda-linked group, Brigades of Abdullah Azzam, SITE said.
Late on Monday, hardline Saudi Sunni cleric Abdullah al-Muhaysini also published an 18-minute video praising Baghdadi’s death, urging followers to quit IS.
“For some, Baghdadi’s death might be the final straw to quit the group and go back to al Qaeda,” said Elisabeth Kendall, senior research fellow in Arabic and Islamic studies at Oxford University.
- Reuters
- Mkini
- https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/497866